Polysilicon Futures Moved Downwards After a Higher Opening on the First Day, While Spot Prices Remain in a Tug-of-War State [SMM Polysilicon News]

SMM, December 26:

Polysilicon futures hit the upper limit on the first trading day but subsequently pulled back. By the close, the price of the most-traded polysilicon futures contract was 41,570 yuan/mt.

Spot market side, prior to the listing, mainstream polysilicon transactions in early December stabilized at around 40 yuan/kg. Later, under the influence of production cuts, multiple downstream price increases, and industry self-discipline, polysilicon enterprises collectively quoted 42 yuan/kg. However, actual transactions at this price were very limited. In the week of the futures listing, some polysilicon enterprises raised their quotes to 44 yuan/kg, but wafer enterprises showed limited acceptance of this price.

Supply side, domestic polysilicon production in December is estimated at 95,600 mt, down approximately 17% MoM, with top-tier enterprises leading the production cuts, which were the main driver of the decline. Comparing with theoretical wafer consumption, the market remains in a tight balance.

Polysilicon inventory side, earlier inventories once approached the 300,000 mt mark. Subsequently, as order signing progressed in December, polysilicon inventories gradually pulled back. Overall, inventories have decreased by about 12% from their peak, and inventory pressure on leading enterprises has eased.

Currently, spot market prices remain in a phase of observation and tug-of-war. Wafer enterprises exhibit significant resistance to N-type dense small materials priced above 42 yuan/kg. Meanwhile, some top-tier polysilicon enterprises still face certain inventory clearance pressure.

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